Not every Pokémon set is equally generous. In some sets there's a Special Illustration Rare in roughly every 32nd pack, in others you need to open over a hundred just to get one. In this blog we rank the ten sets with the best pull rates, with the real numbers for each set, where they come from, and how many packs they're based on. As of: September 2026.

What is a pull rate?

A pull rate is the average chance that a particular rarity is in a booster pack, written as "1 in 45". That means: across a huge number of packs, on average one in every forty-five packs contains that card. It's not a guarantee and not a counter that fills up. You can pull two in a row and then open two hundred packs with nothing.

Good to know: The Pokémon Company doesn't publish pull rates itself. So there's no official list. All the figures in this blog come from large sample sets where thousands of packs were opened and counted: most of it measured by TCGplayer's authentication center, supplemented with figures published by PokeBeach. Every set below shows how many packs the number is based on, so you can judge for yourself how solid a figure is.

We rank by the odds of a Special Illustration Rare (SIR), since that's the rarity most people open for. Keep in mind that a set with a modest SIR rate can still be great to open, because of other hits in the mix. We'll get into that further down.

1. Scarlet & Violet: Obsidian Flames

Obsidian Flames has the best Special Illustration Rare rate of all modern sets, at 1 in 32 packs. That figure comes from over 8,000 opened packs, making it one of the best-supported numbers on this whole list.

The rest of the set is generous too: an Illustration Rare shows up in 1 in 13 packs, an Ultra Rare in 1 in 15, a Double Rare in 1 in 7, and a gold Hyper Rare in 1 in 52. The best-known card is the Charizard ex Special Illustration Rare, which has its own published figure of 1 in 192 packs. For the other three Charizard ex prints in this set, the regular Double Rare, the Ultra Rare full art, and the gold Hyper Rare, no card-specific figure is known; they share their odds with the other cards in the same rarity. Obsidian Flames came out on August 11, 2023, and is often overlooked, even though the odds are excellent.

2. Scarlet & Violet: 151

Scarlet & Violet 151 sits at roughly 1 in 32 packs for a Special Illustration Rare, on the same level as Obsidian Flames. That figure comes from TCGplayer itself, measured over more than 1,500 packs.

You'll also find an Illustration Rare in 1 in 12 packs, a Double Rare in 1 in 8, an Ultra Rare in 1 in 16, and a gold Hyper Rare in 1 in 51. The set follows the Pokédex order of the first 151 Pokémon and is full of full arts of well-known Kanto Pokémon, with Charizard, Blastoise, and Venusaur as the cards everyone hopes for. 151 released on September 22, 2023, and remains one of the most sought-after sets out there.

3. Scarlet & Violet: Prismatic Evolutions

Prismatic Evolutions has a Special Illustration Rare rate of 1 in 45 packs, measured over more than 1,200 packs. When those figures came out in January 2025, it was big news: the four sets before it had SIR rates around 1 in 85 to 90, so this was nearly twice as good.

The set is all about Eevee and its evolutions and has an extra layer other sets don't: Master Ball foils, which show up in 1 in 20 packs, and Poké Ball foils in 1 in 3. An Ultra Rare is 1 in 13, an ACE SPEC 1 in 21, and a Hyper Rare 1 in 180. There are 32 different SIRs in the set, so pulling one specific card stays tough: for example, the Umbreon ex sits at 1 in 1,440 packs. Prismatic Evolutions released on January 17, 2025.

4. Scarlet & Violet: Paldean Fates

Paldean Fates gives you a Special Illustration Rare in 1 in 58 packs, plus a Shiny Rare in as often as 1 in 4. Those figures come from a measurement of 1,500 packs.

That shiny layer is what makes this set so fun to open. A shiny full art shows up in 1 in 13 packs, a regular Illustration Rare in 1 in 14, a full art Ultra Rare in 1 in 15, and a gold Hyper Rare in 1 in 62. So you've got something shiny in your hands in almost every fourth pack, which feels a lot more generous than the standalone SIR rate suggests. Paldean Fates released on January 26, 2024.

5. Mega Evolution: Ascended Heroes

Ascended Heroes is the best set in the Mega Evolution series to open, with a Special Illustration Rare in 1 in 70 packs. That's clearly better than Phantasmal Flames (1 in 80) and the first Mega Evolution set (1 in 101). The measurement was done over more than 2,000 packs, excluding the god packs in this set.

The biggest difference is at the top: a Mega Hyper Rare here sits at 1 in 540 packs, more than twice as accessible as in the two sets before it, where it was 1 in 1,260. New in this set are the Mega Attack Rares, seven cards in comic-book style that show up in 1 in 29 packs. They do take the place of the Ultra Rares, which made an Ultra Rare somewhat harder to pull: 1 in 21 instead of 1 in 12. An Illustration Rare stays at 1 in 9 and a Double Rare at 1 in 5. We ranked the cards that pay off the most in Top 20 Chase Cards from Ascended Heroes. The set released on January 30, 2026.

6. Scarlet & Violet: Black Bolt and White Flare

Black Bolt and White Flare have the best Illustration Rare rate of any modern set, at 1 in 6 packs. No other set comes close. The Special Illustration Rares sit at 1 in 80. These two sets were measured together over more than 700 packs, so the sample is smaller than most other sets on this list.

If you look purely at how often you've got something nice in hand, these are the most generous sets in recent years: TCGplayer reports a hit rate of roughly 50 percent, the best they've ever measured in a modern set. On top of that, a Poké Ball foil shows up in 1 in 3 packs and a Master Ball foil in 1 in 19. An Ultra Rare is 1 in 17. Both sets released together on July 18, 2025, and center on the legendary Pokémon of Unova, with Zekrom in Black Bolt and Reshiram in White Flare.

7. Mega Evolution: Phantasmal Flames

Phantasmal Flames delivers a Special Illustration Rare in 1 in 80 packs, measured over more than 5,000 opened packs. That's one of the largest samples on this list, so this figure is solid.

An Illustration Rare shows up in 1 in 9 packs, an Ultra Rare in 1 in 12, and a Double Rare in 1 in 5. The set revolves entirely around Mega Charizard X ex, and the odds there are steep: its Special Illustration Rare sits at 1 in 400 packs, and the gold Mega Hyper Rare at 1 in 1,260. The latter works out to about 35 booster boxes for one card. Phantasmal Flames released on November 14, 2025, and at 130 cards is the smallest English-language set in years.

8. Mega Evolution: Perfect Order

Perfect Order sits at roughly 1 in 81 packs for a Special Illustration Rare. That figure comes from TCGplayer, measured over more than 3,500 packs.

The rest of the set follows the familiar Mega Evolution pattern: an Illustration Rare in 1 in 9 packs, an Ultra Rare in 1 in 12, and a Double Rare in 1 in 5. At the top it's noticeably tougher than Ascended Heroes, since the Mega Hyper Rare of Mega Zygarde ex sits around 1 in 1,786 packs. Mega Zygarde ex is also the card this set is built around. Perfect Order released on March 27, 2026.

9. Mega Evolution: Chaos Rising

Chaos Rising comes in at roughly 1 in 83 packs for a Special Illustration Rare. This figure also comes from TCGplayer, measured over more than 8,500 packs.

A Double Rare is also 1 in 5, an Illustration Rare 1 in 9, and an Ultra Rare 1 in 12. The Mega Hyper Rare sits around 1 in 956 packs, which lands in between: more accessible than Perfect Order, but tougher than Ascended Heroes. Mega Greninja ex is the card this set carries, and thanks to that scarcity it's one of the pricier cards in the series. Chaos Rising released on May 22, 2026.

10. Scarlet & Violet: Surging Sparks

Surging Sparks closes out the list with a Special Illustration Rare in 1 in 87 packs, measured over more than 8,000 packs. That's tied with Obsidian Flames and Destined Rivals for the largest sample in this whole top 10.

An Illustration Rare shows up in 1 in 13 packs, an Ultra Rare in 1 in 15, an ACE SPEC in 1 in 20, and a gold Hyper Rare in 1 in 188. The Pikachu ex Special Illustration Rare is by far the best-known card in this set. Surging Sparks released on November 8, 2024.

Which sets have the worst pull rates?

The first Mega Evolution set has the weakest Special Illustration Rare rate of the modern sets, at 1 in 101 packs, and the gold cards are nearly impossible to pull: 1 in 1,260 packs. That was measured over 5,000 packs at the time. The set released on September 26, 2025 in the US and October 10, 2025 in Europe.

Destined Rivals sits just above that, with a Special Illustration Rare at 1 in 94 packs, measured over more than 8,000 packs. An Illustration Rare is 1 in 12 and a Double Rare 1 in 5, and with Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex, Cynthia's Garchomp ex, and Misty's Psyduck, the set has a broad range of cards people genuinely want. Destined Rivals released on May 30, 2025. Both sets are fun to open, just not because the odds are in your favor.

Why do pull rates vary so much between sets?

The biggest split is between regular main sets and so-called special sets. Special sets like 151, Paldean Fates, Prismatic Evolutions, and Black Bolt and White Flare are smaller, have fewer cards, and are deliberately built to be opened. They often have an extra layer, think of the shinies in Paldean Fates or the Master Ball foils in Prismatic Evolutions, and that pushes all the odds higher.

Main sets like Surging Sparks, Destined Rivals, and the sets in the Mega Evolution series are much bigger and also need to deliver a complete, playable card pool. That spreads the rare cards more thinly. Within a single series the numbers then stay remarkably stable: in nearly every Mega Evolution set a Double Rare is 1 in 5 and an Illustration Rare is 1 in 9, and only the top end changes.

Also keep in mind that the number of cards in a set makes a big difference. A set with forty Special Illustration Rares has the same odds of pulling "a" SIR as a set with six, but the odds of pulling that one specific card you want are much lower.

Frequently asked questions

How many Special Illustration Rares are in a booster box?

A Pokémon booster box holds 36 packs, so you can just do the math. With Obsidian Flames and 151, at a rate of 1 in 32, you land just over one Special Illustration Rare per box, and with Surging Sparks (1 in 87) roughly one per two and a half boxes. For more on what else is in a box like that, check out Pokémon Booster Box: What is it and what do you get?

Are pull rates guaranteed?

No. A pull rate is an average across thousands of packs and says nothing about your box. At a rate of 1 in 70, you have roughly a 1.4 percent chance per pack, and that chance is exactly the same in every pack, even if you've just opened twenty without a hit. Over a single box the outcome can swing well away from the average, in either direction. It's only over huge numbers of packs that the figures actually hold up.

Is a set with better pull rates also a better buy?

Not automatically, because better odds also mean the cards you pull are less rare. A set where everyone easily pulls Special Illustration Rares usually ends up with cheaper singles as a result. Conversely, the cards from a tight set like Mega Evolution are pricier precisely because fewer of them are in circulation. So think about what you're after: if you're opening for the fun of a hit, you want a generous set, and if you're after one specific card, buying it as a single is almost always cheaper than opening for it.

Note: card values can go up as well as down. No guarantee of appreciation.

Conclusion

Obsidian Flames and 151 have the best odds of a Special Illustration Rare, at roughly 1 in 32 packs, followed by Prismatic Evolutions at 1 in 45 and Paldean Fates at 1 in 58. If you mainly want something nice in hand often and care less about rarity, Black Bolt and White Flare are the better choice: an Illustration Rare shows up in 1 in 6 packs there, and roughly half of all packs contain a hit.

From the newer Mega Evolution series, Ascended Heroes is the most generous set, with a Special Illustration Rare in 1 in 70 packs and a Mega Hyper Rare in 1 in 540. Keep in mind with all these figures that The Pokémon Company itself doesn't publish pull rates. These are after-the-fact measurements, and the more packs behind a number, the more reliable it is. Every set above lists how many packs it's based on, so you can weigh that for yourself.